A Tale Of Two Similar Pitchers

Here are two pitchers that have both pitched for the same team. Which pitcher would you rather have on your team? Since 2009 one of them has struggled but before then he was extremely productive. The other pitcher debuted in 2006 and is currently one of the best pitchers in baseball. Here are their stats:

Pitcher A (2002-2009):

K%: 18.80% BB%: 6.90% HR/FB: 9.30% GB%: 43.2%

ERA: 3.81 FIP: 3.83 xFIP: 4.00 WAR: 31.3

Pitcher B (2006-2012):

K%: 21% BB%: 6.50% HR/FB: 7.50% GB%: 33.6% 

ERA: 3.19 FIP: 3.59 xFIP: 4.04 WAR: 27.4

If you haven’t figured out who they are yet, you’ll find out after the jump. Continue reading

Angels Acquire Starting Pitcher, Zack Greinke

In a somewhat surprising move the Los Angeles Angels went out and acquired starting pitcher, Zack Greinke, from the Milwaukee Brewers for top prospect, Jean Segura, AA pitcher John Hellweg, and AA pitcher Ariel Pena. Greinke should slide in nicely and help solidify the Angels rotation even more. The Brewers get a shortstop of the future and a couple of pitchers who could help down the road. Continue reading

Trading Peter Bourjos Would be a Mistake

Since last season the Los Angeles Angels have dangled OF, Peter Bourjos, in front of teams that needed an outfielder. It’s no secret that the Washington Nationals have had interest in the outfielder. Just last season they tried to acquire him, but to no avail. Their name came up again today in a rumor that would have sent Bourjos to them. The Angels need bullpen help, but trading Bourjos to get that help would be a huge mistake. Continue reading

Prospect Watch: Mike Trout

Mike Trout is the Los Angeles Angels prize prospect, and is currently playing for the Salt Lake Bees in the Pacific Coast League. He was taken with the 25th pick in the 2009 draft, and so far has proven to be a major steal. If the Angels didn’t have a logjam in the outfield, he would probably be starting. Continue reading

All-Time Greats: Los Angeles Angels

This evening I’m starting a new series called the “All-Time Greats”. I will be looking at the 10 best position players, and 10 best pitchers all-time for every organization in baseball. To start if off we are going to look at the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. I will be starting with just the offense. Continue reading

2012 Outlook: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

The 2011 Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim finished 86-76, staying with the Rangers until late in September.  Starting pitching and defense were the strengths of the team, with the offense rating just below average.  That was partially resolved with the signing of Albert Pujols, but left field, designated hitter, and especially catcher needs more production to compete with Texas.  The pitching is now even stronger with the addition of C.J. Wilson, probably giving them the best 1-4 in the American League. Continue reading

Dan Haren: Mr. Underrated

Throughout baseball no one has been more underrated than Dan Haren. Since 2008 Haren has been one of the games best starting pitchers, even better than his all-star teammate Jered Weaver. Based on wins above replacement (WAR) he has been better than Felix Hernandez, Jon Lester, Jered Weaver and Cole Hamels. All four of those guys are all regarded as some of the games best pitchers.

Continue reading

C.J. Wilson Makes Angels Rotation Even Better

Right after the Angels landed Albert Pujols, the best free agent of the off-season they went on and added the best starting pitcher, C.J. Wilson. Adding Wilson to the rotation makes the Angels’ pitching even better than it was before the signing. Since converting to a starter in 2010 Wilson has totaled 10.5 WAR and a FIP- of 78, making him one of the best pitchers in baseball. The Angels rotation was already good enough before Wilson arrived. As a starting staff they had 17 WAR (.6 came from Chatwood, he was traded to Colorado in the Iannetta deal. Without Chatwood the starters had 16.4 WAR). Overall, they were 4th in all of baseball with 17.8 pitcher WAR. I didn’t factor in pitchers who only pitched a few games. They were also 5th overall in FIP-, C.J. Wilson should only make them better.

The Angels should also expect to get good value from Wilson during his contract. In 2010 he posted 4.6 WAR and gave the Rangers $18.5 million dollars of value, last year he posted 5.9 WAR and was worth $26.5 million dollars of value. The Angels are paying him $15.5 million a year. Using $4.5/win and accounting for the 5% inflation per year we get the following value numbers for Wilson.

 

Overall, Wilson should give the Angels $98.23 million dollars of value, meaning they get $20.73 million dollars in surplus value, a number like this extraordinary. Before free agency started it was rumored that Wilson was looking for 6 years and $100+, the Angels saved a ton of money while getting value out of Wilson. While Wilson will most likely be the Angels number three starter based on last years numbers he could be the number two, ahead of Haren and has the potential to be the number one.

Pujols, Angels Agree to Blockbuster

Talk about surprising. Yesterday it was revealed that Albert Pujols will be joining the Los Angeles Angels and not the Miami Marlins or St. Louis Cardinals like many expected. The deal was for 10 years and $254 million dollars. The deal also comes with a full no trade clause so Pujols won’t be going anywhere.

We all know how good Pujols is so there really isn’t a need for a huge explanation. He’s the best first basemen in baseball and one of the best overall players. He’s coming off his worst year, posting an ISO of .242, a .385 wOBA, a 148 wRC+ and a 5.1 WAR. Not bad for your worst season. Pujols did suffer from some injuries this season so if he come’s back healthy he should easily post 6.5+ WAR.

Over the first six years of the contract Pujols should be relatively solid, more so the first four. The last four probably won’t be as good but with Pujols the good massively out ways the bad. Let’s take a look at what kind of value Pujols should provide during his tenure with the Angels. The salary is in millions.

For the most part my prediction was fairly accurate. The first five years Pujols is giving the Angels some really good value. You could say he is his sixth year as well but after that he begins to declines, which is only natural. Overall I have Pujols giving the Angels roughly $240 million dollars worth of value, a number that’s ridiculous and given the circumstances the Angels should be ecstatic to get that out of Albert. In Albert’s case overpaying for him isn’t as bad as overpaying for someone of much lesser talent because of how good he is and his potential, so in this case we can call his actual deal and his projected value a push.

Pujols does come with his share of injury concerns though. Even though he has the concerns he’s still managed to play more than 150 games per season except two and has played 140+ games ever since.

Pujols will be a massive improvement over Trumbo next season as well.

While traditional statistics may show that Trumbo had a good rookie campaign, if we dive deeper we realize that he’s essentially league average. His offensive production was only 5% better than league average, his WAR was pretty much league average as was his wOBA. Pujols was obviously much better, something that shouldn’t come as a surprise.

I could keep going on and posting statistics but it would be a waste of time, you all should know (I hope) that Pujols is pretty much a machine. The Angels are easily the winner of the off-seasons, oh yeah they also got C.J. Wilson. The Angels will be a force to be reckoned with next season and shouldn’t be taken lightly at all.

Angels, Rockies Swap Players.

Yesterday the Colorado Rockies and Los Angeles Angels swapped Chris Iannetta and Tyler Chatwood. On the surface it looks like a really good deal for the Angels. They badly needed a catcher after getting .191/.253/.301 out of their catchers last year which is terrible. Iannetta on the other hand posted much better statistics, during the season, he had .248/.370/.417. If we dig deeper and look at some splits as well as some advanced statistics we realize that Iannetta was horrible on the road. This shouldn’t come as a total surpise, Coors inflates offensive even if it isn’t as much since the humidor at Coors got implemented.

Throughout his career Iannetta has performed much better at home. Since 2006 you can see how he has performed at home and away from home in this spreadsheet.

 

The two big things that really jump out at you are Iannetta’s big drop offs in power and his wRC+. Coors is one to increase power but when he’s away from Coors he’s hardly above average power wise. When he’s away from home he’s also creating runs 19% worse then league average, Angel fans don’t want to see that. Iannetta can do damage at Coors but when he’s away he’s just not as good.

The Angels got 21 year old Tyler Chatwood. Last year was his first taste of big league experience and he wasn’t that impressive.

In 27 games last year, 25 starts, Chatwood had an unimpressive 4.89 FP and 4.90 xFIP. He doesn’t strike out batters and has a problem walking them. He struck out 11.7% of the batters he faced and walked 11.2% he faced. If he wants to stay in the big leagues he needs to cut down walks by a big margin. He has the potential to be a 3 or 4 in the big leagues but it might be in Colorado’s best interest to let Chatwood start the year in the minors.

In the end, both teams got what they needed. Whether it pays off or not remains to be seen though. If I had to I’d say Colorado got the better deal. They got a young pitcher with potential and signed former Reds catcher Ramon Hernandez to fill their void. I didn’t talk about Hernandez but look out for a post in the near future.